Larry - Yes, the last part of a trend is the most risky part to get right. Assuming this stock is finishing its Bull where the INPATHIQUE chart is showing it (Apex in January 1999), then this stock is already within the boundaries of the next bear. In fact, the down trend in August was following the Lower-Boundary of the next Bear. (that tells you how steep it is)
This stock does NOT have to go up from here. That is why there is risk unlike other parts of the INPATHIQUE sets where it has no choice but to go up.
Above I am talking about the Highest patterns. Within these, there are smaller INPATHIQUE patterns that extend over just a couple of months. Those are the ones I am studying to try and determine whether it can extend the winning streak up towards the Apex of the Bull. It was the Nadir of one of these Lower patterns that I said occurred on Sept 25. (unfortunately, being a stifled bear, this is a forced Nadir, the real Nadir is Oct 16, so this pattern is messy ... However I still put my money on the line on Sept 25)
The most likely (using every INPATHIQUE clue I can see) route for the stock's price sees it peak out around $45 November 20. If I am wrong on the trend of this little bull-run, the worse case I see is $25.
Not neat and clean, and yes, much more risky than in other phases of an INPATHIQUE pattern, but I still think there is a buck to be made here. I'm counting on it. |
