David
Re: Wave count
We're in agreement on the 1 and 2.
1 of 1 of 3 from 9/29 just before the close to 9/30 noon, took 16 points off the OEX in 2/3 day. 2 of 1 of 3 on 9/30 from noon to around 15:00, about 3 hrs. 3 of 1 of 3 took 18 points off the OEX in half a day, till 10/1 10:30 , and the 4 took about 3 hrs again. The 5 of 1 was completed at today's lows (showing inside it a 5 count as well- a protracted 5), and took 14 points off the OEX.
So I believe that the 1 of 3 is complete.
2 of 3 will be the reaction on a daily bar chart to the break of the lower line of the flag(?).
1 of 3 took 2 1/4 days and shed 41 points (8%) off the OEX. I expect the 2 will take at least 2/3 day and not more then 1 1/2 days.
I agree with jay8088 that the 3 of 3 should not be a long, grinding bear, but follow in '29 footsteps. The psychology of investors demand that after we reached close to 9/1 low and dead cat bounced from it, any decline will start a snow ball rolling. It's already over two months from the high, and over a month since we broke the OEX 520 line. Stocks that seemed to be immune against gravity (esp NDX high flyers), have recently (since the beginning of the 3) to participate and even lead the down moves- look at MSFT, YHOO, DELL, CSCO, LU in the last three days.
From the look of the beginning of this 2 of 3, it is quite possible that it'll end by 14:30 today, and the 3 of 3 will begin before the close today.
ATG |
