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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Ilaine who wrote (33239)10/2/1998 5:08:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Read Replies (2) of 132070
 
cobalt, all my 401k money is going into cash. i think stocks are a good deal when fairly valued. when at manic market tops where pes, growth, dividends, fundamental, etc don't matter you can expect to have a poor return for quite some time. those that bought in 1929 tops had some 30 years before they broke even. did your book mention that? ;-)

or how many people died before they broke even? buying at fair value over time is good. buying a little above fair value is ok. buying below fair value is awsome.

keep in mind that picking the low in 1802 may have been done. if the high was twice the low then your return is cut in half. also, we are at manic high levels in some indices so that is not a good end point.

there is also room for much creativity b/c ibm didn't exist in 1802. in fact, how many companies exist today that existed in 1802? iwhat criteria was used to switch companies then? hindsight is 20-20. i could tell you how to start with $100 jan 1st and turn it into a couple million by now if i knew what the year's chart looked like for amzn back in january. this guy has the same kind of hindsight.

1802 through now has been incredibly productive. will we move as far from here? what is the next car? electricity? airplane? etc.

i'm in cash until i get better prices.

i do own a lot of stock long and some puts. my longs are small caps that i feel will do well and they are already cheaper than what i originally thought was cheap.
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