Larry, the conditions faced by CSCO, the economy, the stock market, are unlike any faced in the last four years, so your analogy doesn't hold in my eyes.
As far as the Dow holding 7400 on Friday, I knew it would hold. If you look at my other posts, I having been waiting for the bear trap (which will come next week) as an opportunity to short. In fact, I think CSCO will make moves up to $60 next week before starting its next downward phase.
As far as the Dow hitting 6000's next week, I NEVER SAID THAT, and if I implied it, I take it back NOW. At this time, I have no timetable on when the market will make its move, but my best guess is that options expiry week will not be pretty for the bulls and I hope to be a put buyer at that time.
As far as charting not being as relavant as in the past. Perhaps in the short run it isn't, but in the medium term it's still a very effective tool. Anyway, I am more of a student in momentum than anything else, and that is/has always been the best indicator of the direction of overvalued stocks.
In the meantime, I'm waiting to reshort the internet stocks; however, of INTC, DELL, MSFT, and CSCO, I still maintain CSCO is by far the weakest.
Good luck. |
