John, Moot, FMK. MJ, Sharpster, Ticker et al...
I feel like I'm standing in a crowd waiting to find out if our city gets to host the 2010 olympics. Lord knows the strain and stress we have gone through and, it is almost sureal to see the level of optimism.
I am completely taken back by Lev's useage of the term "on the cusp." That really was a slap in my face to say, "Hey wake up, I'm not kidding, this time we mean it."
John...can't say I agree with you on the market condition affecting the stock prices chance to really pop. Consider the following:
IF a contract(s) is announced, who would be selling? We ALL know that big buyers are awaiting the reality of a REAL BIG P.O. and when it comes, they will buy in waves. Supply and demand will be the rule of the day and demand will easily conquer the supply.
The BEST thing about those 550,000 insider shares being bought is they are, for all intents and purposes, removed from the "float." As Moot pointed out, it is very unlikely that the insiders will turn and sell in the near future. This will help the demand side of the equation significantly IMHO.
This is one of the easiest businesses to analyze and project earnings. There is nothing complicated, they can either be capable of making millions of batteries or they can't. If they can, well the revenue projections will justify some much loftier stock prices in the immediate time fram surrounding an announcement.
Most of the BIG boys can't afford to get too big a stake in VLNC yet. There just isn't enough float. The stock will have to split once or twice to get the total float to 100 million + shares. They can take smaller positions, but again, these are unlikely to be short term plays...weighing again on demand.
Finally, there is a TON of cash on the sidelines right now. Everyone is waitnig for a bottom or they are stock picking. We knew about VLNC...most do not. If IBM/MOT, etc. would jump on board, well, we will need to have been double buvkled in. I see investors diving into this. The new OEM's will be touting our technology throught he XMAS season...can't wait for that!
All of this answers why we are all on such an edge right now. I think a big announcement (IBM,MOT???) would EASILY double the stock that day. That's right, right back to $8 the day of the announcement. I beleive I am NOT underestimating the impact of this announcement.
I remain cautiously optimistic as I look to increase my long position over the next couple of weeks.
Good luck to all.
HC
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