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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII)
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To: Don S.Boller who wrote (8449)10/3/1998 7:20:00 PM
From: DavesM  Read Replies (2) of 12468
 
"OFFTOPIC"
Don

"A greatest part of this market rise has been mania"- I don't believe that the U.S. market is in the mania phase yet. Japan in the late 80;s was a bubble top and I don't believe that we are near those levels.

Also while you stated that the bull market started with the 1974 market bottom, this does not include the effect of the high inflation we suffered through out the 70's and early 80's. Some belive that if inflation is taken into account, the US stock market was in a bear market for the entire decade of the 70's.

We know that much of market valuations are based upon future expectations, and through out the 80's and early 90's , the United States was seen as a declining economic power (remember how Japan and the Asian Tigers). How can you have a bubble top when the world views your economy to be in decline?

Though dividend yields are at historic lows, much of this is due to the fact that the market prefers corporate repurchases of stock over dividends. IBM spends over twice as much on stock buy backs as it does on dividends. If the market felt otherwise, those numbers could quickly reverse.

I'm not saying that we're in a bear market (we are), or that we are near the bottom, which is gut wrenching on a high Beta stock like WCII. What I am saying, is that I don't think we're in a bubble top or in a mania phase.

davesm
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