Bill,
I thought I might mention at this juncture that I have some interesting data to announce and I would like to add it to your observations and analysis, so here it is:
The advance decline 25 day cumulative sum, the simple difference of the up and down issues on the NYSE over the most recent 25 days, will give me the first buy signal since the July top even if the advances outnumber the declines on Monday by only 233 issues. If this happens and we get a sell off on Tuesday, the buy signal would still be intact even if the declines out numbered the advances on Tuesday by as much as 1200 or better.
I use this indicator regularly. This is the indicator that called the top in July and the top in 1987 when we were shorting SP's like crazy, check out those numbers and see for yourself. I find it to be a remarkably reliable indicator.
If we get those numbers on Monday, it will be calling the bottom at this time. It could turn bearish quickly at this point, but if this coming week turns out to be a rally week, then the signal will be valid for several months to come. These signals take weeks and months to develop and is a major leading indicator to me.
Of course, if the David Stern hypothesis about an imminent crash happens and the declines are more than the advances, then all bets are off, but that remains to be seen on Monday.
Chartwise, I like the pattern. The NAZDAQ looks very impressive here to me.
I suspect that the European markets will follow Wall Street's lead and rally when they open and this should fuel the continued rally that began yesterday.
(Yes, I still have that December SP500 that I picked up on Thursday's weakness and grinning, so far.....)
GZ |
