From The Mouth Of Don Hayes...
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OJ:
Interesting Stuff:
Lastly, there is one technical indicator that has been so amazingly accurate for
many years that is on the verge of giving a major buy signal. The indicator was
developed by Richard Arms--appropriately named the Arms index. It simply
measures the ratio of the volume expended on the upside versus the downside,
and then compares that to the advance decline ratio. For the vast majority of
times this indicator is not all that significant, but about once every 4-6 years, the
10-day average of the Arms index moves above 1.5. When that has occurred,
without exception in the 9 times in the last 30 years that it has occurred, it has
always meant that a major bull-market would begin in the following two weeks.
This is the indicator that was the final piece of evidence to me on August 9, 1982,
which prompted me to write the most important report of my little career, in which I
stated that within the next two weeks one of the strongest bull markets in history
would begin. Surely enough, on August 17, 1982 the upside explosion occurred,
kicking off the 16 year bull market. This will be very significant to us if it occurs,
since we have been expecting a very significant super-cycle bull market to be
kicked off in the next 18 months with a totally different "growth" personality. We
haven't expected it to occur this soon, but we will listen intently to the message of
the Arms index for a clue in the days ahead.
It is not there yet, but yesterday the 10-day average of the Arm index moved to
1.443. If today's daily input of the Arms index should close today at 2.365, that
would once again give one of those very rare signals that a major BUY
opportunity is within the next two weeks. Remember, there might be more
damage, but the damage should be viewed with excitement.
Jim |
