John -
As long as CPQ maintains inventory in the channel, their (past) sales figures are overstated
This is true not just for investors but also for managers within CPQ who read these same numbers. One of the big reasons for the huge reduction in channel inventory was to bring the current reported sales figures more in line with manufacturing requirements.
Look at it this way - Dell gets sales figures 'on line' - they can say on a day to day basis what customers are buying, and make plans accordingly. CPQ was getting their reports months out of synch, since they had to do the complex analysis of what customers were really buying when feedback from those decisions would be months after the decisions were made. Clearly this made Dell an order of magnitude more agile.
This fact alone made it a requirement for CPQ to cut channel inventory to the absolute minimum, aside from the cost issues that made it important to investors. If CPQ is to remain responsive, they need direct feedback about what works and what doesn't, and they need that information in days, not months.
Even in the best of circumstances, the direct model gives the absolute best real-time trend analysis on customer preferences.
Which means. I guess, that I am in strong agreement with your statement:
all other things being equal, Dell's stock should always enjoy a little premium to CPQ (or CPQ a discount to Dell) due to this issue. With Dell, the sales figures are simply cleaner.....More lucid accounting has to worth something, right?
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