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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (30129)	10/4/1998 11:19:00 AM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (3) of 94695

GZ: These markets move on expectations, not facts. Of course, they do! My point is that the expectations in the U.S. are completely unrealistic at the moment, while the rest of the world has already adjusted to a more realistic view of the future (profit recession already, probably followed by slow growth and possibly even a growth recession next year). Because perma-bulls in the U.S. are still in denial and pretend that the U.S. economy can remain largely immune to this global economic crisis, the final shattering of that self-delusion will be bloody (and therefore possibly overshoot significantly). In a time when earnings growth is flat and likely to turn negative soon, an overvaluation of some 60 % above historical levels (around Dow 5000?) just cannot be maintained. If the market were looking 9 months ahead, as you like to proclaim, instead of floating on bubble of hot air and wishful thinking, it would be several thousand Dow points below the present level. I am not going to make any prediction about the timing, but I think that we will see Dow 5xxx before Dow 9400. There are bargains around but not in blue chips. Regards, Phil

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