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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 232.12

+1.6%

Dec 23 3:59 PM EST

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To: H James Morris who wrote (19893)	10/4/1998 11:37:00 AM
From: M. Frank Greiffenstein	Read Replies (1) of 164684

The calendar... James, I hear you, but my strategy is to take advantage of the calendar. A couple of months from now is January, a historically good time for speculative stocks. Unless there is bad news, I would avoid shorting AMZN then. I choose October to short AMZN for historical reasons. It is a very volatile month, a lot of poltitical turmoil takes place, window dressing is over, and it is the start of tax loss selling season. Throw in information that is AMZN specific (widening loss estiamtes by analysts), and you have a recipe for downward volatility. The short term question for AMZN is this: Are there enough losers in the stock to induce tax loss selling, or are their enough winners to keep it in their portfolio? My gut impression is that it is even around 100. If AMZN can stay above 100 for remainer of October, it stands a good chance of avoiding tax loss selling pressure. I am more confident about my shorts in AMAT than I am in AMZN for the reasons cited above. DocStone

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