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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Monty Lenard who wrote (30142)10/4/1998 1:02:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
>>>>But, I do think you are missing an opportunity by not using a-d volume in addition to the issues<<<<

I do use volume in my outlooks and that has me confused. As of Friday night, I thought we had hit a short term bottom and we would rally for a week or two forming another bearish rising wedge to prepare for the next downleg which I expected to happen when we reached the down trendline connecting the highs of July and August and now last weeks high which triggered this last drop after failing to penetrate that line twice. My reasoning for the short rally was the high volume during Friday's drop, the hammer bottom formations, tweezer bottoms and most importantly the A/D volume which turned almost 2-1 to the Advance side.

Since this outlook was posted on the TSO thread, I have been reading many outlooks here that think we are dropping by Wednesday. Their arguments are as usual valid also and I am now turning more bearish given the news out of the G7 meeting and the increasing likelihood that Japan will fall below 13000 this week. I saw rumors that Brazil may devalue also. After writing all this, basically my question is why was advancing volume so high considering that is was a Friday, the bleak FA outlook etc. Short covering for over the weekend could account for some of it but the numbers were almost 2-1. I do put allot of weight, actually more weight on the A/D volume than the A/D issues since I think it gives a better read of the market direction.

Thanks in advance,

Lee
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