There are analysts that understand the segment, but generally they have more analytical industry background than chuck.
Keep in mind that chuck loves size more than substance. Last month, when asked which of the stocks he covers he would want to own in five years his answer was "none."
Analytical applications become more attractive after the installed infrastructure of OLTP systems is fairly complete. "What do you do with the information once you have it?"
That's part of the reason the merger is so interesting. The enterprise installed base will likely be very interested in extending its capabilities by supporting reporting in more than four dimensions and adding support for budgeting, what if analysis and forecasting.
analyst comments:
I think that some sell siders really do understand the story but they typically have more direct industry experience in their background than Chuck.
However, you have to keep in mind how little time sell side analysts actually have available to do real "primary" research. (By primary I mean direct talks with customers, partners and competitors as opposed to just listening and reporting from management.)
If they do any research, they must then write about it, spend a large portion of their time talking to institutional investors and then spend another large portion of their time meeting with private companies to persuade them to "do a deal" in some form.
There are a number of analysts that cover several analytical companies.
Marshal Senk came from Oracle and used to cover ARSW. His writing suggests he understands the space, but he's too busy to bother returning the calls of management, it even appears he's dropped coverage. (Perhaps that will change soon.)
Tom Berquist at Piper was head of advanced technology and data warehousing and business intelligence at Deloitte and Touche prior to starting at piper and he covers a number of names in the space.
Rob Tholemeier from First Albany also comes from industry and was an analyst at Meta I think. He covers a number of names in the space too.
I've only spoken to Brent Williams from Needham a few times, but I think he comes from industry too and gets the space.
Chris Mortenson doesn't come from the technology world per se, but he does have an accounting background. He knows the Hyperion side of the story extremely well and has been an analyst longer than all of the above analysts combined. He reads 10q's and 10k's for fun and is very meticulous in his models.
Sophie Chang from Goldman doesn't cover any other analytical names that i know of, but she might have had a look at MSTR before the bankers (or she) killed the deal. I don't know whether she has any industry background, but I hear she offsets that with hard work. She may get it over time.
There are many other analysts that cover the story, but some of them are so weak in their knowledge that they are actually more dangerous by covering the story. I will leave them unnamed.
Generally, I think that several (if not most) analysts actually like and understand the story, but their phones aren't exactly ringing off the hook with clients looking for new small cap technology ideas.
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