Hi Mohan and thread,
Did anybody watch Wall St. Week with Louis Rukeyser on Friday night? The guest was John Manley from Saloman Smith Barney who is a very sharp fellow. He was saying he is the most cautious right here that he has been in the past 10 years. Because of political problems, world economic problems, hedge fund problems and earnings worries, he figures the Dow COULD move as low as 6500. He says earnings estimates for 1999 are still at 18% and says this is NOT going to happen....they have to come down. He thinks the bond market is an excellent place to be, as rates will be coming down (he figures maybe 2 more cuts), or the Fed will do whatever they have to do. Areas of the market he likes are drugs, electric utilities, energy and technology.
However, if he is right and there is a downside risk of 6500 on the Dow, no matter how much technology is attractive, there's no way the tech stocks will not take a hit.....maybe twice as much as the broad market as they always pummel the Nazdaq twice as badly. So this fellow has really got me nervous here. He sure is no dummy, and maybe it's time to be a little more cautious in here, especially seeing as how it's October and investors always seem to freak out at this time.
Does anybody have any thoughts on this?
P.S. Panelist Eddie Brown.......very nervous,
Panelist Mary Farrell......resonably bullish,
Panelist Liz Ann Sonders...quite negative
Ian |
