Gary,
Perhaps the words from my first post was poorly worded, and for that I apologize. My point is that there are very few if any examples of a service provider switching equipment suppliers. There is only one example that I know of, and that is AT&T dumping Stratacom for Ascend. That is the norm in the networking industry, and that is NOT going to change regardless of who the equipment vendor is, including Lucent.
Consequently, if Lucent buys Newbridge, they will inherit Newbridge's customer list. If they buy Ascend, then they will inherit Ascend's customer list. If you compare Newbridge's and Ascend's customer lists, then you will understand precisely why Ascend has a much higher market capitalization. You get what you pay for. If Lucent wants to be a prominent player in data networking, then they will have to buy Ascend. If they want to be a second-tier player in data, then they will buy Newbridge. My understanding is Lucent wants to be a prominent player.
I have several coworkers who have carefully evaluated Newbridge's technology. Their most successful ATM product, the 36170, is more than four years old and the 36170's they are selling today have not changed much in those four years. Their newest products, the VIVID switches, have not been selling, and for good reason--they are intensely buggy and unreliable. My understanding is that the vast majority of their revenues are from the older 36170-class switches, and they are from customers who have been using them since they were first introduced. I suspect (although I do not know first-hand) SBC falls into this category, since SBC is an RBOC and will likely have some ATM infrastructure for some years by now.
Best regards,
bucky89 |
