I have some concerns about the product roadmap...
and this is still one of my main bitches about the company. They can say stuff like, "our roadmap will guarantee we stay on top" and we have to swallow it. I was thinking how easy it would be to create a brand new product using technology they already have. To be honest 3dfx greatly needs a fresh shot in the arm and I was expecting something for this Christmas season (as per the Sellers interview). Hey, I love Banshee, but it's a mainstream OEM product. 3dfx needs a high-end Banshee bad.
How about an SLI reference design like the X-24 that uses the new memory techniques of revision 3? Even better, how about a single board SLI Banshee? (If 3dfx didn't at least consider a future SLI Banshee design then they are more dimwitted than I'm giving them credit for.)
I look back now and in retrospect think that moving straight to Banshee would have been better for the long term health of 3dfx. (Yes, I'm talking about skipping V2 entirely.) Voodoo2 was a great success but what will it do for us first quarter 1999? Getting the Banshee in action 6 months ago would have almost ensured a clean sweep among OEM's and we'd be that much closer to Rampage without the Voodoo2 design and development getting in the way. We'd be kicking back with all the OEM's in our pocket and somewhat insulated from the whimsey of the fickle retail consumer. Hind sight is 20/20 I suppose. (By the way, that guy who thought 3dfx would be better off doing Voodoo3 was on crack. That's all I need is another roller coaster ride in a shrinking add-in market.)
I doubt 3dfx will have Rampage out in the first half of 1999 like management says. Banshee underwent major delays (I remember the date being moved at least 3 times) and it only used V1 technology. Their track record is very poor on this. Rush was also delayed what...at least six months? A major shift in technology will be very time consuming. The reference drivers for Banshee are still not completed and the Banshee's shipping today are unable to play Quake2. They've had the product in silicon for over 6 months and still can't get the drivers to work with Quake2. Disgusting.
Now Sun says they aren't actively pursuing the set-top or console market. (And by the way is quite the contrary to what I've been hearing.) This may be that they are letting their partners (maybe National semi) handle the deals or maybe they are waiting for the console fairy to come along and give them a cool deal.
The bottom line is that I invested in 3dfx because the technology was great. Not a bad reason, but can they maintain the lead? Development periods like S3 has are unacceptable. The Savage has been in development for several years and is only competitive because they are using .25u technology. Sad. Nvidia has shown they can do great technology leaps in short time frames. They've come a long way from the NV1. In contrast, 3dfx took a year and a half to produce Voodoo2 which is essentially Voodoo1 at a higher clock speed with an additional TMU. (Something Quantum was already doing.) They might as well have called it the Vooodoo ZX. No new tech just new spec.
With the exception of the Banshee 2d, which I must admit is impressive but way overdue, no groundbreaking technology has come out of 3dfx in over 3 years. They seem to be really good at repackaging the same thing. Seller's himself said 18 months for new technology. I wonder, does he consider Voodoo2 new technology?
Here's a few questions for you to ask Sun. Exactly how long have they been working on this next generation product? Do they have a full-time team dedicated to this next generation product or does the work come in their spare time? How far are they through the development process of their next generation product? Since I can't know specifically what the new products are I want a good idea of the type of effort we are looking at.
If 3dfx hasn't released their next generation product by this time next year, they will be totally out of the game. That is if they continue with their usual six-month+ delays. Somebody please tell me I'm off the beaten track here.
Pat |
