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Non-Tech : Derivatives: Darth Vader's Revenge
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To: Terry Maloney who wrote (355)10/5/1998 6:36:00 AM
From: Henry Volquardsen  Read Replies (1) of 2794
 
Terry,

At the risk of sounding trite, a large part of the reason that I am positive for the long term is probably that I am an optimist by nature. As far as specifics I look at several factors. The tremendous amount of ongoing technological change that is dramatically improving productivity. Continued development in the emerging markets. That may be seem an odd think to point to given the current market but believe it or not things are better than they were even 10 years ago. Latin America is hurting but stronger than during the last crisis. In addition there are several countries emerging out of the eastern European bloc. Asia has taken a big hit but has tremendous natural strengths once they get them self sorted out. Up until now the emerging markets have added most to supply but eventualy they will also start adding to demand which will add to global growth. And finally the financial system is proving very resilient. Yes it has taken some hits and it has been very messy but it is holding up pretty well. For example compare the US banking system to the mid 80s, it is much stronger now. So yes the near term situation is very troubling and could deteriorate further but there are some longer term developments that I believe will pull us out eventualy.

Henry
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