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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.
DELL 122.55+4.4%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: jim kelley who wrote (69086)10/5/1998 8:03:00 AM
From: nihil  Read Replies (1) of 176387
 
RE: Japanese pension funds and Second Bang

There are three major trends --- (1) diversion of governmental pension funds to to the Japanese stock market; (2) dispersion of Japanese insurance company stock holdings; and (3) dispersion of Japanese cash savings in banks and Postal system.
WRT (1) the cumulative losses must be huge since the Nikkei has gone down at least 20 % since this started. I think they must stop, and even attempt to recoup by investing in some high return markets.
WRT (2) Japanese life insurance companies are still saddled with many guaranteed contracts require payment from earnings, so they must go seeking dividends wherever thay can (like American utility companies).
WRT (2) Non-life companies have enormous stockholdings that earn them nothing and decrease steadily in value.
WRT (3) The $10 trillion in savings earning <.5% will be dispersed when the finance industry (increasingly dominated by American joint ventures) come up with instruemnts that pay decent earnings and are hedged against a fall in the dollar (which has stung many of the more adventurous Japanese investors. There are fewer and fewer Japanese stocks that caqn produce the needed earnings, so perhaps trillions of dollars will pour into the worlds markets and out of Japan's. These movements should cause further declines in Japanese stock prices until some reasonable P/E's are established (Toyota ADR is about 30 and GM is about 6.5). Every other stock market in the world should rise from the outflow of Japanese funds, especially those with low P/Es and a bigt recent drop.
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