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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (8119)12/27/1996 11:42:00 AM
From: Sid Turtlman   of 132070
 
Mohan: Profits (as a percent of sales) are at what I believe to be
unsustainable levels. Simple explanation - most companies, instead of
waiting for business to stink before laying off employees, have been
doing that even during the recent good times. That is great for profits
now, but when a recession does come along, whenever that may be, the
traditional way of defending profits - laying off deadwood and closing
down bad divisions - won't be available, because it was done already. So
when the next recession comes along you will see some surprising
negative operating leverage - i.e., companies reporting sales 5% less
than expected, resulting in profits 75% less than expected - and they
won't have a good plan for restoring profits because they are already
operating with skeleton staffs. (One thing they certainly will do in
those circumstances is preserve cash by cancelling all orders for
capital goods, including the world's best servers made by the world's
best computer company, whose name escapes me right now.)
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