Don't buy DELL here. Dell is a tough stock to time, that is a given. If only for the fact that every time the PC sector gets hit, this company only manages to steal market share from some other loser out there. This company is a money making machine, no doubt about it, but there is a down side. The risk in this market is considerable.take Cisco for example, great company, great product. Went from 67 two weeks ago to 48 today. A rumor has been going around for weeks now that either a big Japanese bank or a major American brokerage (i.e. read Lehman) is going to get theor clock cleaned as a result of unwinding their hedge positions (LTCM all over again) in fact, the japanese exposure is estimated at 1 trillion dollars, the IMF ability to control this with 15-20 billion dollars is like taking a leak into the Pacific. When it happens, and it will happen, Dell and the other techs will get destroyed. Price estimate on DELL: $45-48 on the down side. In a real ugly market we may see 40-45. Great buying opp, yup!!!! But we will get there:
Other buy targets:
Cisco: $38-40
IBM: $90s
MSFT: $80s
AMAT: $14!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. It can happen.
This is not a downer on Dell. That stock rocks, I have made enough on it already, but believe me there is more to be made. Patience. Do not try to catch a falling knife. At some point panic will set in. When that 50 something year old realizes his 401K or Index fund is about to get smoked (if it hasn't already) the you will see panic like never before. Just a clue. Back in July when Dell got rocked there was a day when the Bid was 103, Ask was 111. At one point the buy side completely evaporated , ON DELL!!!!!!!!. It can happen,don't be complacent about this crap.
Good Luck,
Chuckie
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