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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (30350)10/6/1998 3:57:00 AM
From: Gary105  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
GZ, my opinion:

1. Market internals still terrible - ie very bad breadth.

2. Insider buying is positive and resembles that after '87 crash with the exception that many of the blue chips are not yet being bought by insiders.

3. If not astute trader then its possible to lose money trying to call turn in the bear. I will let market tell me when its turning rather than vice versa.

4. For now, I am sitting on cash, doing selective shorting of weak financials and nibbling at quality companies on weakness realizing they may go lower yet. Most of my gains since bear began have been on the short side. Given poor breadth of market, I still think there is more than 50% chance we see the low to mid 6000's, esp. when it becomes apparent that the S&P earnings growth rate next year may be zero or negative.

5. Possible scenarios (all imo);
a. we have seen the bottom - 20%
b. we will see BK down to the 6000s (or lower) - 30%
c. we will see extended bear market down to the 6000s (or lower) - 50%.

Gary
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