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Non-Tech : The Children's Beverage Group (TCBG)

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To: Charles A. Fielder III who wrote (1931)10/6/1998 10:56:00 AM
From: KSully  Read Replies (1) of 2452
 
In response to Charlie Fielder,

"Do you work for TCBG?"

"Think you have a part in the Race Car promotion! It is just a bit suspicious that you became a member of SI on August 11th, 1998 and like racing."

I have no problems with full disclosure. But first, lets discuss my stock holdings of TCBG:

07/13/98 - bought 1000 at $1 25/32
07/16/98 - bought 1000 at $1 25/32
07/29/98 - bought 1000 at $1 15/32
08/12/98- bought 2000 at $1 13/32
08/24/98 - bought 2000 at $1 9/16

I have $10,500.00 or so invested into TCBG where said investments are currently worth 75 cents or so per share or $5250.00. A carrying loss of close to 50% on the entire investment.

I can hedge my investment through cost averaging if I acquire additional shares at these lower prices (ie: lower the breakeven points). As I have stated in prior posts, there is "time enough". Time Enough meaning to imply that I lack the proper information to make informed investment decisions. What are shares of TCBG worth? I have the slightest idea as to book value, cash value etc. etc..

TCBG has a patent pending built in straw system and is the only other packager outside of Kraft that is able to market stand up pouches. I like the packaging concept/idea. As such, you might say that this is what I was buying when I undertook my initial investment. But consider this. Acceptance in the marketplace is "not" a given. I "think" this package will be a hit with kids. But until and unless these packages are on the shelves, I have no way of knowing if they sell or not despite initial orders from the likes of Wal-Mart and Winn-Dixie.

TCBG recently announced an "AUDITOR". I stated that I view this as a "POSITIVE" event. I will explian. TCBG has actually followed through on something. They stated in the Conference Call (I was not there and have relied upon posts via SI) that the books were to be audited. TCBG missed the timing of naming an auditor as indicated in the Conference Call. Missed the timing of having the books audited. Claimed products were being shipped to Chicagoland etc. etc.. But have now named an auditor. This tends me to think that the time table was screwed up but that the substance of what was stated and mentioned is now moving forward.

I offered my opinion as to what "I Think". To re-iterate, I think TCBG ran into some production problems. Everything was on "hold" pending adjustments to fix the production problems. Recent posts on SI have indicated that production is getting geared up. Wal-Mart plans to introduce their private brand this Fall. A look at the calander tells me that BrainForest is now on hold pending successful completion of the Wal-Mart and Winn-Dixie orders. With TCBG naming an auditor, I take that to indicate that any production woes have now been corrected and that TCBG is in business as they say. I anticipate completion of the Wal-Mart and Winn-Dixie orders. Once satisfied, I anticipate samples mailed to investors and product shipped to Chicago. But as stated in the legal disclaimer "SUCH RISKS INCLUDE THE TIMING OF IMPLEMENTATION AND THE SCOPE AND SUCCESS OF THE PROGRAM DESCRIBED HERE."

What does that mean? I take this disclaimer to mean that TCBG "might" miss the delivery dates regarding Wal-Mart and Winn-Dixie. Whatever those delivery dates might be.

You may differ with what I think. Feel free to offer your opinion.Infact, tear my opinion apart. That is why I posted what I posted. To determine whether or not others thought the same as I and or differed greatly. And by all means, post hard information regarding TCBG. AC Flyer posted phone numbers and principles involved to check out the Wal-Mart story. I posted historical articles uncovered after spending "hours" searching data bases in the local library. What have you contributed?

Enough on this post. I will sign off and start a new post. This one will be full disclosure as to what I do for a living. And yes - it is racing related!

KSully

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