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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 231.69+1.7%Dec 10 3:59 PM EST

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To: H James Morris who wrote (20318)10/6/1998 11:22:00 AM
From: OtherChap  Read Replies (2) of 164684
 
BTW, If anyone out there doesnt know, here's how "forecasts" work.

The analysts have big clients, and they must keep these big clients happy. big commissions.

Information is leaked, sometimes over dinner, but never in writing or preferably not over the phone. No record must exist. This information is the number that the company WANTS the analysts to put out there. If you obey the reporting company, and regurgitate the numbers they tell you to, then they will tell you the REAL number as well. Thus you can help your big clients out by telling them that number.

However, if you refuse to play the game, then they will not tell you the "whisper" number.

Also, if a certain company refuses to give out whisper numbers (some companies still have integrity, just not in the internet sector) then the analysts will do something interesting- they will "estimate" numbers that are substantially more optimistic than they should be. This of course pisses off the reporting company, because it means they will "miss" estimates.. When in fact they didn't miss anything at all.

It boils down to this: the analysts are corrupt, and most companies are willing to sink to their level and play the game because so far, the public newbie investors are stupid enough that they don't realize what is going on. When motorola beats street estimates by 7 cents, they really truly believe that it was a total surprise!

Until individual investors can find two neurons to rub together, this practice will continue. BTW- I am close friends with execs at two currently public companies, and I know for a fact this is how things work. And to top it off- many public companies have relationships with large market makers in their stocks that could easily be described as criminal, if exposed.

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