CDMA, Qualcomm, [Hong Kong, Korea, LA] THE MARKET TEST! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : CDMA, Qualcomm, [Hong Kong, Korea, LA] THE MARKET TEST!

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To: uu who wrote (1369)	12/27/1996 6:48:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	of 1819

techstocks.com Folks, you can read about: Fractal aerials so that there isn't a wand waving around. Aerial systems continue to improve making miniaturisation easier. Addi, don't you think that until Qualcomm actually gets some earnings from the CDMA business, which is what it is mostly about, their P:E will remain high? Sure they have had some licensing fees and Omnitracs has been the money provider for development, but they are only just getting handsets and infrastructure under way and haven't been paid much yet. I agree that the analogy between Microsoft and Qualcomm is stretching a point. But not by as much as first sight would suggest. Sure, Microsoft just needs to download their latest intellectual property over the web, so their production costs are negligible. Even on CD their production costs are negligible. Also, Qualcomm only gets the royalties with no production cost - the rest is hard yakker making infrastructure and handsets. But a point common to both is that the key is intellectual property as the primary value. Qualcomm is involved with a lot of software to make CDMA work. They are basically selling both the hardware AND the software, whereas Microsoft only sells the software. Talking and listening are such primary human activities that it is easy to visualize Qualcomm exceeding Microsoft - though they have some way to go! I guess a better analogy is that if you combine IBM and Microsoft, you are getting somewhere close to where Qualcomm might end up. I hope you don't think THAT is Irrational Exuberance. I guess that gives Qualcomm an eventual market valuation of about $140 bn. Just kidding, but it is a complicated competitive business to see where it will end up. It is not even absurd to think of Eudora as becoming a significant competitor to Microsoft. Email is like talking and listening. Personal and person to person. Sure Windows 95 is great, and maybe Microsoft will get into on-line banking so we don't need banks anymore, but it is all guesswork, for me anyway, at this stage. Thanks for your critiques. Maurice

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