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Joseph and all, for good or ill, I am spending a lot of time watching the market lately, mainly the SOX index, the 30 year T-bond yield, the Dow 30 and the SP-500. Today was kind of interesting. Bonds were strong all day, but stocks were uncertain about which direction to take. Towards the close stocks decided that south was the way to go. Dow went negative for a while and all other indexes sold off. The whole market was pulling back. I watched the SOX and the SP-500 continue to drop til the close, while the Dow managed to turn up and eke out a new record. I was a bit puzzled by the action in stocks, seeing as how bonds reacted so favorably to the lastest numbers: "Treasurys (sic) are charging forward in late-afternoon New York activity, following the release of a favorable Nov. durable goods report, though reaction was somewhat offset by a larger-than-anticipated drop in jobless claims." Some blurb-writer's misleading play-by-play from DBC Newsroom. All the charging forward took place in the morning and if anything, bonds pulled back a bit in the afternoon. I was so impressed with the morning strength in bonds that I exited some Jan. SOX puts, feeling sure that the market would move higher. But after a while I began to think that I made the wrong move. Stocks just kept looking weak, especially the SOX index. So when I saw bonds weaken a bit, I went back into SOX puts and had the sweet satisfaction of watching the index sell off. To see some real money from this position though, I need to see some real weakness in chips next week. Technically, the SOX looks vulnerable to me, otherwise I'd be long, I guess. -g- Today it opened higher, following thru from Thursday's strong finish, but didn't do much besides sell off the rest of the day. Could just be traders not wanting to hold over the weekend. Still, down is down. Comments? Jack |
