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Pastimes : Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX): contrarian investing
BEARX 4.060-0.2%Dec 3 4:00 PM EST
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To: Tommaso who wrote (364)10/6/1998 6:14:00 PM
From: Tommaso  Read Replies (1) of 793
 
OK --it's up to 8.60, another 19 cents or 2.21%

The nice thing is that the higher it gets the bigger the percentage gain is over its lower points (if you bought at $6 it's a better than 3% gain on the day).

I guess the total possible BEARX gain may be some low multiple of a total market decline. At this point, the gain is roughly double the decline since the peak of the market, so a 50% bear market might mean a 100% gain on BEARX. This is not all that spectacular when you look at people who have increased their capital 700% since 1982, but for a period of a year or so it would be awfully good.

I think I'll get out sooner and just sit on cash waiting for what looks like good values on the long side.

That's enough counting of unhatched chickens for the moment.
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