The difference in the 25-day A/D sum between 1973, 1987, and 1998 is number of shares traded to a large extent. I looked at the periods in 1973, 1987, and 1998 that resulted in huge differences in total NYSE declines over total NYSE advances. I included the entire period of accumulation for the net declines which in each case exceeded the 25-day period. However, I think this comparison is a better picture of the severity of each period.
In 1973, net declines exceeded net advances over a 26 day period by 13,555. The average daily number of stocks traded was 1,517. This included a daily average of 498 advances and 1019 declines. Average daily declines exceeded advances by 521 per day. The average daily declines averaged 49 percent of the average daily advances. Of the three periods, the 1973 average daily declines resulted in the lowest percentage of average daily advances. In that sense, it was the most severe. During the period, the DJI went from 985 to 788 for a 20 percent decline. This period ended with the 1974 completion of the soul-taker bear market of 1973 and 1974.
In 1987, net declines exceeded net advances over a 40 day period by 14,286. The average daily number of stocks traded was 1,660. This included a daily average of 651 advances and 1008 declines. Average daily declines exceeded advances by 357 per day. The average daily declines averaged 65 percent of the average daily advances. During the period, the DJI went from 2611 to 1847 for a 29 percent decline. In that sense, this period was the most severe. This period ended, more or less, with an advance.
In 1998, net declines exceeded net advances over a 28 day period by 20,905. The average daily number of stocks traded was 3,063. This included a daily average of 1158 advances and 1904 declines. Average number of daily declines exceeded advances by 746 per day. In this sense, this period was the most severe. The average daily declines averaged 60 percent of the average daily advances. During this period, the DJI went from 9128 to 7539 for a 17.4 percent decline. Who knows where we go from here.
The actual 25 cumulative amount for the three periods was -17,355 for the period ending 8/31/98; -11,578 for the period ending 10/28/87; and -12,673 for the period ending 12/5/73.
I think this is sufficient for any numbers geek. I sure spent too much time on it. Some numbers do not balance because of rounding. But a lot of us asked this question in the past. |
