Denial Syndromes...
OC, I would like to believe that your scenario plays out. Believe me, I really really do!
But the ability of people to selectively attend to positive information and to ignore discrepant information is remarkable, especially when both $$ and ego are at stake.
Let me pretend to be a AMZN bull. I would point out that bks.com is delaying its IPO. Taking out of context, this would be a powerful factor that could fuel another run up. Of course, the fact that Bertelsmann is giving 300 million (200 million for stock, 100 million for expenses) can simply be ignored. Remember, AMZN has gone up not so much on the basis of its sucess, but on the basis of failure by competitors. Borders has acted brain dead, BKS was slow to recognize the threat. Bertie has been running delaying tactics (will we have a US partner or not?) to get a better deal. Penguin is late to the game.
Another bullish factor to point out is YHOO earnings tomorrow. I have no doubt that YHOO will report great revenues. YHOO is fused to AMZN in most investors minds, so the two oculd run up together. I have no illusions here.
I believe today's Bertie announcement seals AMZN's fate. The foundation for AMZN's dismantling are now in place. CIEN coudln't survive once NTL and LU and CSCO started to encroach, and it did not take all that long for this to take place. CUBE and TRID and all the rest were destroyed by INTC getting into MMX technology and graphics accelerator stuff. AMZN does not have a chance. The quesiton is a matter of time, not if or when.
FYI, I went to a bar with my wife last night and talked to some strangers. None of them ever heard of AMZN.com. Of course, I don't hang out at college bars <g>.
Me, I bought AMZN Oct 95 calls as a gamble. I don't have many, I am willing to lose the money. But I ahve no doubt my AMZN Jan100 puts are good as gold. I don't really care if AMZN goes for the moon tommrrow.
DocStone |
