Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 265.39

+4.2%

Dec 2 3:59 PM EST

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To: akidron who wrote (24944)	10/6/1998 10:04:00 PM
From: john dodson	Read Replies (1) of 70976

OT: Re: reasons to be cheerless on IBM... 1. killed on pc's What % of total revenues and earnings are pc's? I suspect that they're not even close to what they used to be 5 - 10 years ago. 2. Mainframes suffering... I've heard just the opposite about mainframe revenues for the next 12 months. In fact they're supposed to be a bright spot. 3. Very exposed to currency risk. Hadn't heard this. How much more exposed does "very exposed" mean than typically acceptable currency risk? 4. A bubble stock This is baffling to me. Trading at approximately $120, IBM is trading at 20 times last year's earnings, and less than 16 times next year's earnings estimates. A bubble stock? Dell is a bubble stock (although it does keep going up). The slightest sign of earnings/revenue weakening, and Dell will get the double whammy -- earnings drop AND a multiple drop. I do agree that 3Q earnings will move the IBM, probably up, unless they mention the A word to much (Asia). -John dodson

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