Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (30388)	10/7/1998 7:34:00 AM
From: Thomas J Pittman	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Slider, Re: your message about deepwater concerns.... How do you establish an upside/downside risk in these companies. I have been following this sector for about 9 months now but am only now getting ready to bite (on RIG, actually because of is pre eminence in deep water). However, I have to say, I am not happy yet with my downside risk assessment. So far all i have come to is that book value looks pretty solid as a low point and I have used book as 17 (current book) + 2.50 (this year's earnings low est) + 2.50 (assume the worst and give flat earnings). Now that gives me about 22 as my projected low, but you gotta admit that was nothing but a WAG. What IS a good way to establish projected lows for these companies? any ideas? J

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