<I spent the entire night last night traveling the Japanese countryside trying to convince investors that the NIKKEI has bottomed. I think it helped. I flew there and back very quickly. Whew, my arms are tired.>
"Take my money, please", the Japanese investors say. Amazing sheepishness at work there. They hit a new 13 year low one week- and buy with both fists the next.
Here we are again at the 200 day MA -15% on the NASDAQ. As expected (by me anyway), the NAZ peaked at 15% over its 200 dma on July 20, then fell through the line on Aug. 4, confirming the change from a bull to a bear market. It then proceeded to fall all the way down to 15% below the THDMA on Sept.1, where it put in a temporary bottom. The NAZ then rallied back to the 200 day MA by Sept. 24, and wavered for a while before giving it up all the way back down to 15% below the THDMA yesterday (within 1%, amazingly).
See it all for yourself on the chart:
quote.yahoo.com^IXIC&d=3mm
Since this bear market is not likely over, from here we rally back once again to near the 200 day MA, and turn down once again.
BEWARE though, just because this +15% to -15% cycle has worked nearly flawlessly for the past 4 years does not mean it will continue to do so. (past performance is no guarantee of future results, yada, yada..)
I'm not going to bet against it though.
BTW- Are your arms included in the Dow transports? <g>
Regards,
TW |
