The comment in the last post about the quality of the thread as a function of the information content in the posts is unquestionable. Its a simple concept. If you think CBS is going to 15 by 10/15 or 40 by May, state why you think so. Fundamental analysis, Technical analysis, mystical analysis, just explain your reasons. Others then may evaluate your conclusion and respond with agreement or challenge based on substance. The quality of the thread is preserved or enhanced as an information source and a community of thoughtful debate.
My standards for thread statements are these: If a post states no more than a bald prediction, it is useless and should be disregarded. For readers who might otherwise be concerned about the content of bald-faced predictions: If there is no stated reason, assume there is none to state. Refuse to be misled.
Thats all there is to the public service announcement. <S>
Regarding the Yahoo article on the advertisement business and recessions, there were two sentences that were instructive in particular. First, ''Over the past 38 years, advertising has declined only twice (1961 and 1991),'' Gupta said. Second, ''Radio has been recession resistant,'' Schrott agreed, adding that Emmis is seeing no signs of slowdown in its current business performance.
If you don't need the money, hope that CBS is pushed down to 15 by a an industry-specific or broad market panic because your 24 month horizon will be all the better. My reasons are the above two statements, CBS' strong cash flow, Karmazin's ownership interest, and the unique position CBS has in the media business.
John, there is an increased risk that the IPO will be delayed given market conditions. Because CBS has not indicated a specific date dor the IPO, they can let it slide quietly. |
