Hi Pat:
<< First of all prices will change rapidly with mass deployment.>>
Agree, but wat is your time schedule: 1997 or 1998 or 1999? (if last two it might be too late). And do you think that cable modem prices will stay the way they are today ?
<< Secondly, you have to factor in what speeds you actually attain as
cable bandwidth is shared >>
I am not buying this argument at all. I suspect that the ADSL at CO is also statistically maxed before being forwarded to the next switch. In addition the bandwidth of the info sent to you by a host(shared by hundreds if not thousends) could be significantly less then attainable by ADSL modem. And BTW I think you ignore the fact that the cable modem's baud rate could be so much higher so the sharing by the 50 to a 100 simultaneously connected subscribers becomes irrelevant. And there is no limitation on the distance from the house to CO.
<<... and then factor in the services you get from each. ADSL
is two-way; cable one-way;>>
I believe you are a bit wrong here. Both are assimetrical bandwidth:
large bandwidth downstream and low upstream. I believe it is perfect for Internet services.
<< ADSL is serviced by a telco, cable by historically unreliable cable cos; >>
I suspect that the data xmission cable networking service will be picked up by the equipment of the companies like BAY, CSCO, CS and the cable cos will just provide the passive coax cable to the house and maybe local TV and VOD multicast.
<< and ADSL requires the already-installed copper wires, cable needs fiber to the house. >>
Are you saing that my current coax cable will not work? That is a surprise that the copper wire is better then existing coax cable.
<< The Baby Bells demand for ISV's to pay the same as long distance, doesn't show a shifted priority at all. It simply shows they're concerned about who's going to pay for all the upgrades needed to handle the over-worked "voice" (I would rather say existing) system right now.
Once the FCC tells the ISVs they don't have to pay, telcos will be forced to move into ADSL with lightning speed merely to compete. From what I understand, the best thing that can happen to ADSL is for the FCC to rule *against* the Baby Bells. >>
Pat, it looks like you contadict yourself. On one hand you are saying that RBOCs have a legitimate case on the other you expect the FCC to turn them down? First I believe FCC ruled several years ago in favor of RBOCs, when RBOCs demanded for Compuserve and alike to pay as Long distance cos, but for some reason (I do not know what it is) the ruling was never enforced. Will FCC reverse itself who knows? If they will then they will have to yield to demand of the long distance cos to illiminate the crossconnect charges (about 60 billions a year) as well. Besides the FCC their is also Court and GTE went to court against the FCC and local goverment rulings to allow ATT into some of the GTE local markets.
I hope I do not sound too negative on the ADSL technology. I believe it will coexist with the cable modems for a number of years especially in the countries where the cable service does not exist or is very small. But in the US I suspect the cable modem could be a formidable competitor to ADSL.
Regards, VZ |
