Some body was wondering that if ZITL found some drug curing cancer. No, they find a drug to save the world! But at this hype speed ZITL will take over the world a few times before they save it. Doubled in 8 days! In about 100 days ZITL will be bigger than US GDP. Some one said that Soros is buying ZITL and Bill Gates is going to buy ZITL. The thing is that if ZITL is going to take over the world in 120 days who can buy them?
There were a lot good analysis on this thread one month ago when people could still made arguments on ZITL. I am not a COBOL expert the puzzles I have here are just some simple numbers.
1.) The $600 billion cost to fix Y2K problems.
What's the all public US company's income in 1996?
The answer --- $350 billion. If the US companys represent
1/3 of the $600 billion Y2K cost, doesn't that mean in
next three years all the company's profits (exclude the Y2Ks)
will be down about 20 % (600/3/3years) on average? If only
1/3 the US companys have the Y2K problems then their profits
will be down at lest 60%. Some one help me if I am wrong.
2.) Some one said that IBM was going to fix Y2K problems for their
present customers for free. Let's see, IBM has about 1/6 share
of the world computer(hardware and software ) revenue, if the
Y2K problem is proportional to that it would mean that IBM is
going to give away $100 billion in next three years. If the
profit margin is 50% (MSFT's profit margin is only 25%) for the
Y2K business the give away will cost IBM $50 billion which is about two times of their total projected profit in next three
years. Why IBM will do it?
The ZITL hype started from the internet and it was just
spreaded to the whole world in last week that is what moved
ZITL stock. What's the next hype will go? MARS! That's the
place ZITL belong to, but unfortunately there is no investor
over there.
Here is what I pasted from Yahoo new about ZITL trading and
Soros rumor on last Tuesday the day ZITL bounced back from a
intraday low $45 and took a 30% move in the following two days.
**"The buying appears institutional in nature. It was not
retail-type buying," he(Emerald Research analyst Joe
Besecker) said, noting blocks of 10,000 share trades in
recent days.**
(the 10,000 trade is a lie, just check the chart,
almost all were 100-1000)
**Asked if he had heard that a large, well known investor
was buying the stock, he(Emerald Research analyst Joe
Besecker) responded, "George? I wouldn't be surprised at
that," but said he had not specifically heard of buying
by Soros. "Clearly, it is someone big."**
(was Besecker spreading the rumor here or he was creating
the rumor by that time? He was the person who mentioned
Soros' name first)
YD |
