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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 158.70+1.0%Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: still learning who wrote (7089)10/7/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
I don't know about the thread at large, but I'm

A: On the sidelines. But then I never invest in semi equips for reasons already discussed.

B: Typically, back-end equipment turns around first, because shrinks increase need for back-end capacity. Chemicals and other consumables also turn around early, because they are driven by capacity utilization. Once big capacity buys start, cleanroom shells and infrastructure (plumbing, gas cabinets, etc) are built first. Lead times are longer for process equipment, though, which reduces the gap between cleanroom orders and process equipment orders.

C. Business upswing no sooner than mid-1999. They tell me the stocks usually lead by six months or so, so that puts the stock upswing no sooner than January. My sources suggest these are optimistic estimates.

D. I don't recommend specific companies, because I don't follow the stocks closely enough. Any company with reasonable market position trading near or below book or net cash is probably an excellent long term bet. For the short term, there may still be more blood to be spilled.

Katherine
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