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Technology Stocks : FirstWave Technologies (FSTW)

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To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (371)10/7/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: Bob Trocchi  Read Replies (1) of 9677
 
Hank...

>>What a real disappointment this stock has worked out to be! <<

I agree. Found the following Press Release from Business Week On-Line as their stock of the week. At the end of the PR, is a list of their most recent list of Stock of the Week Picks.

Based on what has happened with FSTW and SEBL, maybe this one is a possible short to offset FSTW. Seems like their SW is in the same area i.e. Sales Force Automation.

>>STOCK OF THE WEEK

NEW YORK, Oct. 06 (Standard & Poor's) - S&P's Stock of the Week is Dendrite International (DRTE), which was a previous Stock of the Week on June 23, 1998.

The company provides advanced Electronic Territory Management (ETM) solutions used to manage, coordinate and control the activities of large sales forces in complex selling environments, primarily in the pharmaceutical industry. DRTE's solutions combine advanced software products with a wide range of specialized support services including customization and implementation services to help customers more efficiently manage their sales forces, improve operations, maintain a customer sales and market research database, as well as provide sales and marketing decision support tools.

The company sells one core software product, Series 6 (TM), to its pharmaceutical customers, which can be configured to support four functional areas: sales representative, account manager (for institutional and managed care sales forces), area manager and home office sales manager. The software is designed to be modular, thereby allowing the customer to select a set of functions most appropriate to its business requirements. The Series 6 system offers an enhanced user-friendly graphical user interface through a Microsoft Windows for Workgroups or Windows 95 environment and exploits object oriented programming technology to enhance the modular properties of the system. The software utilizes territory-based (i.e. ZIP-code or other local area) prescription sales data in providing performance analysis reports and includes modules capable of analyzing both territory-based and prescriber-level prescription sales data to permit priority targeting of physicians and others who influence the pharmaceutical prescription process.

Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson and Rhone-Poulenc Rorer accounted for 59% of the company's 1997 revenues. Other pharmaceutical customers include ABT, BMY, GLX, LLY, MRK, and SGP. Recent results have been impressive on strong demand, higher margins, and strong growth of the pharmaceutical industry.

Consensus earnings per share estimates are for $0.46 in 1998, rising to $0.60 in 1999. The P/E on the 1999 estimate: 38. The company's five-year estimated growth rate is at 30%. The stock is trading above its 50- and 150-day moving averages. It is consolidating after a move to an all-time high. Relative Strength is in the top 1%. Sell Stop: 18.

By Mark Arbeter

-- RECENT STOCK OF THE WEEK PERFORMANCE --

DATE OF PRICE BEST GAIN
SYMBOL STORY PRICE 10/5/98 CHANGE SINCE STORY*
METG 09/29 32.00 25.50 -20.3% STOPPED OUT
TNSI 09/22 26.63 26.63 0.0% +26.8%
LGTO 09/15 55.00 45.00 -18.2% STOPPED OUT
CTXS 09/08 65.63 63.75 -2.9% +15.8%
ABCW 09/01 22.00 19.50 -11.4% +9.1%
KEA 08/25 53.63 44.00 -18.0% STOPPED OUT
AVEI 08/18 39.63 35.75 -9.8% +21.5%
VGTI 08/11 8.88 4.13 -53.5% +12.0%
KNDL 08/04 27.00 28.00 +3.7% +29.6%
PACC 07/28 26.50 21.00 -20.8% STOPPED OUT
PRGN 07/21 33.38 32.63 -2.3% +25.8%
FYII 07/14 34.63 29.00 -16.2% STOPPED OUT
CBIZ 07/07 20.38 17.38 -14.7% +24.5%

*GAIN IF STOCK SOLD AT HIGHEST PRICE AFTER STORY<<

I did a little DD on this one and

1. Stock has dropped from around 26 to 20 in the last week or so
2. P/E is 51 (ttm)
3. P/s 5 (ttm)
4. Bailye, the Pres, CEO and Chairman of the Board has sold about 140,000 shares in the past year. Sounds like a lot but he has 2.7M so this is not too surprising.
5. Some additional insider selling.
6. Earnings are 0.39/sh. (ttm)
7. Company Has 19m in cash.

Some good points and some questionable ones like insider selling and current valuation.

If this market sector is under pressure (SEBL, currently DRTE, and for sure FSTW) then maybe this one also could drop further and be a good short.

I have no position but thought that you might be interested since you have a large position in FSTW.

Cheers
Bob T.
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