El,
In all honesty, I am a lurker on this thread, but have been a member of SI for over a year now. I wanted to take this opportunity to say to you and all the regulars on this thread, that the information you share is valuable and oftentimes very entertaining. As a tech stock investor, I've visited many other threads over the past year, and I've got to say that you guys are the best.
As a matter of background, I currently own several hundred shares of Compaq averaged at 35, initially buying a couple of hundred shares prior to the last split at 71 7/8. I'm certainly not happy with the current state of affairs, but it really does help to read the posts you folks leave each day, because at least I get to learn about how other people perceive the situation.
As a technical writer in the PC industry for the past 4 years, and prior to that a marketing manager for a few high tech companies, I'm very familiar with Compaq. In fact, my first job after grad school in 1980 was working for Texas Instruments in Houston, and sitting just a few cubicles away from me was Bill Murto, one of the three founders of Compaq. As such, I've watched Compaq grow over the years and have always been impressed by their ability to successfully respond to changing market conditions by modifying their business model and product mix as necessary.
Unfortunately, it was partly my soft spot for the company that led me to invest what is for me a lot of money in Compaq stock. As I've now witnessed my money evaporate (on paper anyway) I've now become a bit cynical about the company. And yet, for some reason I honestly believe that they will turn it around, simply because they have historically shown the ability to rebound from difficult times.
As an example, I recall just prior to Rod Canion's departure that leading industry publications like Computer Reseller News and PC Week were not very optimistic about the company's prospects. This is because at that time they had yet to show that they could successfully transition from being a leader in portables to becoming a leader in the desktop segment. As we know today, Compaq proved them wrong, and ultimately achieved a leadership position in desktops.
Does this mean that the Compaq stock price will soon rise from the doldrums it's in today? No, it certainly doesn't, but the fact that they did it before suggests that they can do it again. It's frustrating for all investors (day traders and longs), but the truth is that despite all the "what-iff-ing" on the parts of analysts and pundits, we'll have our real answer before the bell on 10/14--at least for the past quarter.
It will also be very interesting given the insanity on the 'street' the past six weeks to see what the contents of the conference call will be. If someone in Washington doesn't start taking this 'global' economic crisis deadly seriously, then perhaps EP will have little choice but to be less than optimistic in the CC.
As I conclude this dissertation, I must say a sincere "thank you" to all of the regular posters to this thread. Although I don't really know any of you, I have come to enjoy your comments and observations regarding Compaq, as well as other subjects. From now on, I will no longer be a lurker, but will take a more active role whenever I can.
Regards,
JMaz
PS: Put me in for .12 per share as an estimate |
