There is the "Wireless IT" (Information Technology) show coming up Oct 12 in Las Vegas. If the first customer is for cell phones instead of notebooks, it may be possible to see a customer announcement then. Comdex is not important as a battery forum, but it is THE big deal for announcing new computer products. So anybody wanting to trumpet being the first polymer notebook would probably announce it there or at least show it around in the back room.
Meanwhile, the Power 98 conference was Mon & Tues. Valence had no discernable presence, and Ultralife was pretty low-key compared to last year, although they did claim at their booth to be "in production now" and "taking orders". The more interesting battery company presentation was Moltech, with lithium-sulfur stuff that should blow away lithium-ion & polymer by late 1999. They claimed to have patents covering nearly all permutations of the idea.
The general attitude at the show was that polymer is just about here, and will become a reality in 1999 from several vendors. People seemed to believe that the capacity will be slightly less than liquid per volume, but maybe better per weight, and of course lower minimum thickness. Safety should be about the same, with some positives and some negatives.
Overall, the Li-ion market is becoming more competitive both in the USA and worldwide, with a widening oversupply seeking a "third application" that nobody has found yet. Some of the Japanese vendors with poor or no Li-ion prismatic offerings may jump direct to polymer, but prices on Li-ion are falling and it is not clear that polymer is a home run for 1999. An executive from one of the large Japanese suppliers stated that he believed nobody in the industry is profitable in Li-ion right now. |
