Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Grommit who wrote (30464)	10/7/1998 5:51:00 PM
From: Gameboy	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Grommit, you've illustrated my point beautifully, by ignoring the present trend in oil prices and OPEC's future willingness to act insure 'normal' oil prices. Try figuring in the effect of US-1999 recession on oil demand and E&P budgets. That's all everyone's focused on. In the July EIA report on the effects of the economic downturn in Asia, they had to revise down the worldwide growth in crude oil demand from 1.5 million barrels/day to 1.2 million barrels/day for 1998 - doesn't seem to have hampered OPEC that I can tell. I wait to be shown whether or not there will be any reduction in the demand by the US for crude oil, and OPEC has already stated they will maintain current production levels unless prices don't conform to their goals. OPEC seems well positioned to effect $18/barrel oil for 1999 regardless of any economic circumstance that comes along - strangely, this is a completely overlooked possibility. Instead, 1999 is seen as the year the oil business falls off the edge of the earth. OPEC has a tough time being taken seriously, even when things are going their way. Best of luck, Steve

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