>> Evidence to the contrary would be welcome. <<
While your arguments are certainly to the point and well taken, the one very important piece of evidence you are overlooking is the current price action of AXC itself.
In fact AXC is not only declining less than the general slump in low priced small and speculative stocks, but it is even holding it's own.
There has been a tremendous, relatively speaking, amount of support coming in at the 1 1/16 level. In fact, both the daily and weekly have drifted through the longest possible trend lines of resistance. This is the first time to do so in under two years.
Your time projection of one year for a revenue stream increase is probably correct. However, if so, the market will begin to discount this increase in about 6 months if it has already not already begun to. Again, observe the rate of price decline during the past 5 weeks in relation to the rate of decline for the past 18 months.
Finally, see my earlier posts on "tax loss selling" and the "January effect." Do not draw a general conclusion on tax loss selling without first getting a situational context.
In sum, if you must sell, I suggest waiting until the January to April time frame. If during that time there is a rapid, and rabid, run up then exit (2.00 to 3.00 is not unreasonable). On the down side, very unlikely will you will be no worse off then now. On the up side, this technical "seasonal" play in conjunction with the situation of the present and the recent past would give you a chance at a double or triple from these levels.
One caveat however, from the formation of the current base, there is the strong possibility of a false shakeout. A 2 to 3 trading day punch below 1.00 (especially if there is an October 98 panic). Needless to say, one keeps his cool in this eventuality and does not become unglued by this.
Ed Perry |
