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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 5.925-1.8%2:02 PM EST

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To: Jim Lurgio who wrote (1029)10/8/1998 7:10:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (4) of 34857
 
Amen to that. Besides, a news item on "Kauppalehti online" just showed that Merrill Lynch has *not* lowered their estimates. Apparently it was a fairly wide-spread rumor to trigger this kind of response. Meanwhile, Jorma Ollila just gave some very positive comments. "Näkyvissä ei ole mitään, mikä voisi heikentää kasvunäkymiä Aasiassa tai muuallakaan, Ollila vastasi"
"We don't see anything that could weaken growth prospects in Asia or anywhere else". This was in response to a question about currency restrictions.

But Nokia is plunging. Down 8% in Helsinki. I can't figure out what's going on. Information on phone sales keeps piling up and it seems to be all good. Several European operators reporting 40-50% subscription growth. Nokia 8810 sold out for the next 2 months in Hong Kong, Singapore and England. People paying 2'000 dollars for black market 8810's. Forecast of 30% global market share in digital phones for Nokia in -98 (up from 16% in 1997). A Carnegie forecast of sales of 5 million units of Nokia digital phones in USA, versus one million units last year. Strong market share gains in China. All the key models on market in time and production ramp-ups seem to be going as planned. An expert interviewed by "Helsingin Sanomat" said that Motorola phone sales contracted during 3Q -98 - it was the infrastructure sales that contributed to their 9% sales growth in "Cellular products".

So what is the current reaction about? It could be about Motorola's new models... though when they actually ship in volume is anyone's guess. And just how well will 400$ Startacs sell over 200$ 61xx and 100$ 51xx models is an open question. After all, these TDMA and CDMA Startacs were supposed to be in market in 1997. They are offering 1997 technology and 1996 design for a 100% price premium over Nokia's -98 models. I don't see this as a major threat for Nokia sales growth in 1999. Of course, all this could be just a copycat reaction to Ericsson/Alcatel/Nortel sell-offs. It's still a long way to Oct 23...

Tero
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