Mike,
On one of your favorite topics, lagging productivity, by Roach of Morgen Stuck-up;
hbsp.harvard.edu
Excerpt for private use:
The early 1998 data suggest that productivity gains are slowing again. Taking into account the volatility of the business cycle, underlying annual productivity growth has remained close to 1% in the 1990's, consistent with the subpar performance of the preceding 15 years. From that standpoint, unbridled prosperity is a long way off.
How can this be, when the economy seems to be doing so well? One hint emerges in national data on capital stock, long viewed as a key driver of any nation's aggregate potential for productivity. While surging demand for the new information technologies has boosted growth in capital spending to an 8.5% average annual pace from 93 to 97, there has been no concomitant acceleration in the growth of the nation's capital stock. Increases in the total stock of business capital in the 1990's have averaged just 2%, the slowest rate of accumulation since WWII, and half the 4% average gains of the 1960's, the last productivity led resurgence.
Copywrite HBR sept/98
In the end productivity is the real measure of wealth, and the imagined gains will be more closely examined when the dollar makes its' inevitable fall.
On to another question; HP is sitting on 5 billion plus. Currently about 80% of HP's revenue is PC related, and some of that is on very healthy margins, like selling replacement toner cartridges. It's known that management wants to direct the company revenue away from the PC business. Would you venture a guess what direction the acquisitions may take? GE bought our local MARQ recently in a commitment to a new sector of health care; I also heard Hatsopoulos (TMO) interviewed recently; he said America is spending a greater percentage of its' GDP on Health care than any other developed nation, and there is potential to save costs here in better use of technology. For sure the HMO's are under the gun to cut costs. Their single largest cost outlays are cardiology, imaging and oncololgy. So what compaines will use the reduced cost of processors to deliver less costly health care? TMO's sure got a slew of offerings in this sector; its' like the fidelity of health care. I am looking for a great company on its own, but sure wouldn't mind a buy-out the week after my purchase. A local micro-cap I'm buying is MRGE; software that enables imaging to be transmitted to other PC's; I do remember you don't like micros so I won't ask your thoughts on it.
How about GENZ's postponement of the oncology offering? How many more tracking issues can we expect from GENZ? And one last question, do you detect a change in INCY's management being more interested in partnering on deals recently? Did the XOMA deal fall into their lap as a resolution of the suit, or are they worried about PKN?
biz.yahoo.com
And then later in the month with CVTX;
biz.yahoo.com
I looked at all your favorite Bios, and don't think I'm smart enough to decide, but I sure noticed a ton of insider buying at HGSI;
biz.yahoo.com
I know that's not one of your indicators, but for lack of understanding the science, I use insider buying as an indicator.
Thanks for any leads.....
art |
