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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (20824)	10/8/1998 10:08:00 AM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (1) of 50167

Hi Iqbal--for a contrary opinion that you may wish to consider I tend to be rather cynical about the views of most economists but one who I do follow and have some measure of respect for is Ed Yardeni. Not a perma-bull or a perma-bear. He said that the US is already in a recession and this will become apparent as the reports come out. He is calling for the long bond to hit 4% before 1999 is out and then may be lower the following year. The international contagion which is the current cause of woes will be further aggravated by Y2K problems which will affect profitability. I realize that it is one person's opinion and that he could be wrong--but worth noting since he has made some good calls. Re bear markets and bull markets--I get the impression that these terms seem to provoke emotional responses from some. Why not just use the terms up-trends and down-trends in prices?? There is no doubt that prices are in a down-trend in most sectors -- if one accepts that then the question becomes one of how much lower and how best to play it profitably. Hope that you are doing well.

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