Here the response to your response...again, posted on the Yahoo TMAR thread:
I did not check the rig count before I responded to the Oct. 5th posting of jumo77, "nice try SONETHEE, but who cares about the..." which indicated the count was down some 20 rigs. I did follow up, indicating this was not the case.
Granted, most of the new build orders were placed when day rates were around $9000. Obviously, a $4000 per day rate environment will not support operation of most new builds.
I don't have to call around to the shipyards to find out whose building what for who. With the exception of the boats being built at Bender in Mobile and Eastern in Panama City, I visit, or pass on the highway, all of the others. With the exception of the orders Chouest placed, most of the new build orders were firm orders for 2 to 4 vessels, with options for an additional 2 to 4 vessels. A number of these options are not being exercised.
Regarding my comment on the article pertaining to barge overcapacity in the inland market, the point I was trying to make was that like barge operators, OSV operators are not retiring older vessels, but, are opting to spend money maintaining and operating them past their original service life expectancy. This fact, combined with new construction, contributes overcapicity in both markets.
Last night, I read an article wherein one of the Chouest brothers was quoted as saying that because of the greatly increased capacity of their new vessels, for every one of their new vessels which enters the market, two older vessels are forced to the dock. Like your comments which you attributed to TDW regarding the reduced number of new builds entering the market, you have to consider the audience these people were addressing in order to make an informed decision as to the validity of the comments. TDW's comments were probably for the benefit of the market and their investors. Chouest's comments were probably aimed in the direction of a potential client in an effort to get a job for his vessel(s).
Insofar as my being a "short wannabe," NOT! I am not negative on TMAR in general. It's quite a bargain.
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