You got me. Now we have authorities trying desperately, belatedly, to fix something. Two days ago they were in panic over yen weakness, now it's yen strength. Lunacy everywhere.
I do know this. FED has pumped and continues in alarm. A falling dollar and rising money supply is murder on financial markets because the specter of inflation is rising. That specter threatens hedge funds, banks, arbs, and all the players more than real economy pseudo-deflation, because it threatens eventually rapid real economy deflation, the kind that creates a liquidity trap shut-down regardless of central bank activities. Fear so high money just sits in banks with interest rates at 0%, but no one willing to borrow. In Japan, here, and elsewhere, the belief that interest rates commandeer Pavlov's dog is being questioned. You can't push on a string and you can't make a horse drink. Return of capital gets the premium not return on capital. Greenspan was talking that way yesterday.
Just think. More money, less production, and initially not enough public fear to adjudicate the two. You get rapid inflation and then rapid deflation. We are long overdue to shoot ourselves in the foot. Fortunately there wasn't too much speculation this year in the stock market to presage this outcome, so we're safe. Wasn't there and aren't we? |
