North American Vaccine (NVX) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : North American Vaccine (NVX)

NVX 1.035

-5.5%

Dec 30 3:59 PM EST

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To: Don W Stone who wrote (10)	12/29/1996 11:35:00 AM
From: Don W Stone	of 35

Yesterday I had some interesting input from a recent seller( individual investor) of NVX. The seller was "long" the stock with a purchase at around $13-$14. His broker convinced him to take profits for apparently the following reasons. 1) The stock did not move up on the good news of recent. He is referring to the NVX and Chiron/Behring marketing deal. 2) This his broker apparently attributed to the control the shorts have over the stock. 3) That NVX did not get a recommendation for approval for the 4th shot from the advisory Committee, that others had. 4) His broker felt that it was highly unlikely that NVX would have FDA approval by year end ( Jan. 31 ) and thus NVX management had misled them. 5) That the stock lacks Institutional buying. He was abit unhappy when I told him that I was a buyer just about at the time that he was selling, around $22. Here are the reasons I gave him for adding to my position.. 1) The Chiron/Behring deal was a fantastic deal, with what was once thought of as a potential long term competitor, whom now just may become a long term marketing partner in Germany. That Chiron, to save face, put out an announcement within an hour of the original announcement playing down the announcement, was why the stock did not move up. In fact the stock did move up in the first hour and than fell back after the Chiron release. The shorts had little to do with the activity IMO. Anyway you look at it ,it was a great endorsement of NVX so short term performance shouldn't be a concern.Chiron said they would have a DTaP vaccine on the street in two years and Behring signs a four year marketing agreement with a right to extend it for three more with NVX. Behring will be marketing NVX's DTaP-IPV in Germany well before the time Chiron can deliver a DTaP vaccine w/o IPV. I happen to think they will be marketing for NVX for at least seven years. 2) That the Advisory Committee Meeting went about as well as one could expect. Better in some ways than any of the competitors and that none of the recent trials had accumulated enough data for the fourth shot to be acceptable to the Committee. Four years has to have elapsed. 3) NVX management did remain optimistic that they would receive FDA approval by year end. Unfortunately this particular seller took that to mean no later than Dec.31 1996 which is understandable. I pointed out to him that this is the FDA that we are talking about and in that context any date that anyone gives you must be prefixed with the impossibility of ever being right on. I mentioned that all of the analyst that follow the stock gave NVX a possibility of getting approval by year end , but they gave them a much higher probability of getting approval in the Jan/feb '97 time frame. All have BUYS on the stock right now. 4) I told him that Institutions now hold the bulk of the float. 5) I concluded by telling him that the long term downside of this stock in my opinion was a number well above where it was now trading and would be brought on by a takeover by either an Abbott, a Chiron, a Connaught or another big drug company and with that we changed the subject. Well for now anyway at least his broker is smiling.

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