The .05CDN they need to produce translates into about 30MM in sales (or 9MM in Net Profit, hence .05 per share), which would put them at 452MM for the quarter. I believe that is EASILY achievable given their recent contract successes. Aside from that this is approximately only 5% sequential growth, not the 15% you pegged them at, which would asertain their revenues would need to be 490MM, which is indeed unatainable.
Since analysts were told the range for Q2 was $460-465 (458 concensus), and that 465 was do-able, I think we can forego statistical norms. Why read tea leaves when you have access to the real numbers?
This is for Doug, not you. :)
Earlier today I phoned one of my contacts at the company and asked what we could look forward to in this dark time in the market. To summarize:
Institutional interest includes names like Fidelity, Putnam, Casse des Depot [phonetic spelling, don't know the co.], and Ontario Teachers Pension Fund.
Analyst interest includes Goldman Sachs, Dain Rauscher Wessels, and CSI First Boston. [No idea when they'd initiate/add, but it sounded positive.]
I asked about M&A activity and was told the angst in the market may slow things down, but that would be good as it would give them more time to get the stock closer to $40 US, a much more desirable base from which to negotiate.
Next week the new public relations firm will be bringing out several releases and the following week several more --- all leading up to InterOp, beginning on Oct. 21.
Granted, no one could tell me there's a huge contract among the pile, but at least I'm glad to know the company's responsive to shareholders' worries and is making every effort to keep the Street informed during this down market.
Now, if we could shove Mr. Starr down a sump hole, and keep the Japanese moving in the right direction, the world would be a better place.
Later --
Pat |
