Actually I agree with most of what you say in your last post.
Again I reiterate that I am very long on Ampex, and I also believe that keepered media will be produced in 1997.
Having said this I still hold to my initial view that the Maxtor announcement should be considered a "minimal" news release. If it had not come, I am fairly confident AXC's stock price would have dropped in the short-term. My main point was in saying there is no assurance of Keepered media production, and this is where you say I am "technically correct."
I realize my efforts to view the news release in isolation can only go so far. As you rightly point out, ones needs the full context. To hold to this I have followed the SEC filings and know of the interest in keepered media.
Where I disagree with you:
1) I see no great reason to assume Maxtor is the manufacturer cited in the 11/27 filing.
2) I do not believe Maxtor's previous expenditures for R&D gurantee full development. We have no way of knowing how significant these expenditure were in relation to Maxtor's overall balance sheet. In addition, we don't know what other developments (e.g., different platter materials) and what their various priorties are.
3) The length of the disk drive cycle does not invalidate the potential of the hypothesized wait and see strategy. First, if other manufacturers enter this cycle, you assume Maxtor will be unaware of it. Second, Maxtor's current work on keepered media (as you point out) shows they have likely already started in on the cycle. Third, first to market is not always optimal. For example, there can be opportunity costs (i.e., point 2 above). Finally, you miss my point that given a sweetheart deal why wouldn't they sign?
4) As per naivite, I think I have learned through experience not to jump on every positive press release as assured gold. I do however think it is a little naive to assume businesses always (or even frequently) act rational.
I am sorry you feel I do not give appropriate credit to the people posting on this board. To rectify this situation, I would like to publicly thank everyone who has provided reasoned analysis and technical information.
Finally as to your contention that I am some kind of Johnny come lately, if you look at all the posts you might notice my name first appears at #12. |
