MD,
This is too good a fight for me to stand idly by.
<I make an analysis and holes are shot throught it.... go figure.>
OK, here's a rebuttal to some points you made.
<NN is NOT a Telecom Heavyweight, they are concentrated in several distinct technologies, and emerging technologies, hence the 15% growth rate is hogwash.>
This is a NN strength ? Being focussed on ATM and TDM for over 90 % of their business is a weakness in my eyes.
< Likely bundled in those estimates are Routers and enterprise technologies which have dinky margins left>
Hmmm, and how do you back that statement up ? CSCO's margins are holding steady at 67 %.
<Backbone is where the revenue is, which is why CSCO is scrambling to get a carrier class ATM solution)>
ever hear of Stratacom ? How about Packet over Sonet ? Layer 3 services ring a bell ? Is CSCO needed technology, they'd buy it.
<USA holds 300 million people of the worlds 6 billion, or 5%>
Yeah. The US also represents over 50% of revenue for Nortel, Lucent and Cisco. Russia is nice, but New York pays the bills.
<In Canada, because of competion the phone networks are overloaded in the evenings due to flat rate calling plans. Expansion is required. (Guess who supplies Stentor?)>
Nortel does. Circuit switch ports get bought when Stentor needs more LD facilities. NN has no increased revenues from increases in voice traffic on Stentor's network. (Unless NN sells Class 5 switches to Stentor. )
MD, NN will probably make the nut b/c their guidance indicates it.(as per Pat's tea leaf comment).
The real test will be how much of their revenue is TDM vs ATM. NN's ATM revenue will be what analysts will be looking for.
Cheers,
Peppe |
