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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks
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To: Gil Gilbertson who wrote (14523)10/8/1998 11:22:00 PM
From: Eric Klein  Read Replies (1) of 18691
 
Gil,
I think that things have changed. Your brand of momentum investing worked well for a while, but "The times, they are a changin...".

The markets are deteriorating rapidly. I don't think that fear has really set in yet. Some people are already trying to spot the bottom, the bottom is still a long way off. This market is still at historically high levels, it still would have to fall a long ways to get back into a normal range.

Maybe Clinton's troubles have distracted people from the crisis that is rapidly developing, not only overseas, but in the financial markets of the US.

Anyway, a single example:
The bailout of Long Term Capital had to be arranged quickly by the Fed because there was fear that when the positions of this ONE hedge fund began to unwind that it could have a major impact on the financial health of US markets. I've got news for anybody who thinks that the problem was solved by the intervention: Long Term Capital may still blow up. They still hold large short positions in Treasury Bonds and large long positions in junk bonds. And guess what? Both bets are still going against them. And this is just one (albeit very large) hedge fund. How many other land mines are out there? I don't think anyone knows.
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